How Lucky are You

Just recently I heard the news that someone already won the 700+ million pesos lotto jackpot. Wow. What will you do if you had 700 million???

The Lotto is played by choosing a series of numbers from 1 to 55. There are actually different variations. You have the 6/55, 6/49, 6/42, where in you choose 6 numbers out of a possible 55 numbers, for example. I have to admit, I got sucked in as well and tried betting for a number of days, that’s about 80 pesos each day, thinking that I don’t mind spending 80 bucks if it will win me 700 million! Compared to buying a cup of Starbucks coffee which costs around 150.00 pesos and I won’t even win a damn thing. (Unless you take into account the Holiday Planner, where you have to buy about 2 dozen cups of coffee just to get a free Yearly Planner.) At least you know you’re getting something in return and Luck has nothing to do with it.

Going back to the Lotto, whoever won this must be luckier than that leprechaun with the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. (No matter how hard I work, no matter how much I save, it will take years before I even see one million in my savings account.) We are talking of 700 million pesos. That’s equal to the budget allotted for the alleged fertilizer scam of the previous government, that’s how much Manny Pacquiao won in his fight against Oscar De La Hoya. Winning this pot of gold means you’re made for life. And so will your children, grand children, great grand children. Just deposit half of the winnings and wait for the interest to blow up. I mean, you still have 350 million! What the heck are you gonna do with it??

We tried applying math to this, by computing the number of combinations. We got this outrageous idea that what if someone would bet all combinations, how much would it cost. There are about at least 15 million combinations, and if you bet each one, that’s about 300 million pesos for each 20 peso bet. But you will just win half since the other half would cover your expenses in buying the tickets. And there is that remote possibility that someone also made a bet with the same combination, so now your just break even since you have to split the pot. And I don’t think one Lotto outlet can process 15 million bets in one day.

Now, what if the thing is rigged? They declare a supposed winner, obviously they do not need to give out the details of the winner for security reasons. The winner is bogus. So where does the money go? Who keeps the 700 million? If you had connections you could just probably reprogram the ticketing machine to input the winning numbers and make it seem that the bet was place a day prior, and tell your insider that we can split the cash! Possible?

But for now, it really boils down to luck. There is no science to it. It’s even mathematically improbable considering the risk, the amount and time needed. It’s just pure damn luck.